On Tuesday night, the Atlanta Braves continued paving their path to another dynasty, signing rookie center fielder Michael Harris II to an eight-year, $72 million extension that will keep him in Georgia through at least 2030.
But what else is new? Atlanta seems to have cracked some sort of secret code with its repeated ability to cultivate home-grown talent into young Major League stars who agree to long-term deals at great-for-the-player, not-that-risky-for-the-team price points.
And for Harris, goodness gracious, what a ride this has been. It hasn't even been three months since he was called up from Double-A Mississippi to replace an unproductive Travis Demeritte, and now he is a very rich young man who ranks among the top candidates for both NL Rookie of the Year and a Gold Glove.
If he continues to live up to the hype, there are also club options for 2031 and 2032, which could turn this into a 10-year, $102 million deal—after which Harris will still only be 32 years old and could end up signing another substantial contract.
You think center fielder Michael Harris hasn't had a huge impact on Atlanta since his call-up? They are 50-21 since his arrival, averaging 5.3 runs a game with a .802 OPS compared to 4.2 runs a game and .702 OPS before, per <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsInfo_SIS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SportsInfo_SIS</a>. Yes, Atlanta was wise locking him up.
But "For the A," here we go again with general manager Alex Anthopoulos locking up another young star on a long-term, team-friendly deal.
Not even one month removed from the Washington Nationals trading away Juan Soto because they couldn't possibly afford to sign the 23-year-old to a contract that adequately reflects his market value, their NL East counterpart has now added Harris to what was already a ridiculously loaded lineup for years to come.
Get Used To This Nucleus in Atlanta
Atlanta signed Austin Riley to a 10-year, $212 million extension earlier this month that could keep him in a Braves uniform through 2033. They also signed Matt Olson to an eight-year, $168 million deal before the season began, so he'll be a staple in the heart of Atlanta's order through at least 2029.
The Braves already committed highway robbery in April 2019 when they signed Ozzie Albies to a seven-year, $35 million deal (with club options for an eighth and ninth season) and Ronald Acuña Jr. to an eight-year, $100 million contract (with club options for a ninth and 10th season).
And we mentioned these are team-friendly deals, right?
Even with Riley and Olson both coming at an "already reached arbitration eligibility before signing the deal" premium, Atlanta has a five-man nucleus of Riley, Olson, Acuña, Albies and Harris for the exceptionally reasonable price of $65 million next season, $72 million in 2024 and $76 million in each of 2025 and 2026.
(Meanwhile, the New York Mets will be paying $110.33 million just for Max Scherzer, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte and James McCann for each of the next two seasons.)
Though they haven't signed any of these guys to long-term contracts yet, starting pitchers Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson are under team control through 2026, and starting pitcher Spencer Strider and catcher/designated hitter William Contreras are arbitration-eligible through 2027. Recently promoted Vaughn Grissom won't hit free agency until after the 2028 campaign.
Atlanta could do quite literally nothing other than agreeing to one-year arbitration deals with a handful of guys over the next 43 months and still have a 2026 Opening Day lineup that begins as follows:
1. Acuña, RF 2. Albies, 2B 3. Olson, 1B 4. Riley, 3B 5. Contreras, C 6. Harris, CF 7. Grissom, SS
They got to find a left fielder at some point, but that lineup plus a starting rotation of Wright, Anderson, Strider and some combination of the top remaining prospects in their farm system (Kyle Muller, Jared Shuster, Bryce Elder and Freddy Tarnok) will certainly do.
Again, that's if they do nothing to retain guys who are scheduled to hit free agency before 2026. With all the money they're saving on the long-term deals they already have, they could re-sign the likes of Dansby Swanson* (hitting free agency this offseason) and/or starting pitchers Max Fried and Mike Soroka (both arbitration-eligible through 2024).
*If Grissom plays well the rest of the way, my guess is Atlanta won't re-sign Swanson, who is having himself one hell of a contract year with a team-leading bWAR of 4.7. But it could surely afford to do so, if it so chooses.
And, to reiterate, we're talking about four years into the future for what is already the defending World Series champion, the four-time reigning NL East champion and the hottest team in baseball since Memorial Day.
If that's not a dynasty in the making, what is?
If the Braves run a freight train through the NL East for the foreseeable future, it wouldn't be the first time.
They won the division in 11 consecutive seasons from 1995-2005, most of them in blowout fashion. Save for 1995, they had some miserable luck in the postseason, but it was a more-than-decade-long stretch of regular-season dominance unlikely to ever be repeated.
But if they can close the current 3.5-game gap and overtake the Mets for this year's divisional crown, who will stop them from letting those good times roll once more?
The Nationals are a dumpster fire that probably won't even flirt with a .500 record in the next three years (he typed, fighting back tears, in his curly "W" cap).
The Marlins have literally never won the division and have not had a winning record in a 162-game season since 2009.
The Phillies haven't made the playoffs in 10 years, have little worth mentioning in their farm system and are spending an awful lot of money each year on Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, each of whom is already at least 29 years old. (It's like a bizarro version of Olson, Riley, Acuña, Albies and Harris in which they are aging and more expensive.)
Philly could win the division, but it's only going to get tougher with each passing year of its pricy nucleus getting older and Atlanta's stars only now approaching their prime.
It really should be Atlanta vs. New York until further notice.
And while the Mets have been excellent this season, they are going to lose both Edwin Diaz (free agent) and Jacob deGrom (player option) this offseason unless they pony up a lot more money to keep them around.
Steve Cohen does love to spend on big-name free agents, and New York has a great farm system highlighted by catcher Francisco Álvarez, so the Mets ought to be a playoff team more often than not for years to come.
But Atlanta's ability to lock down its top talent for a reasonable price at a young age certainly bodes well.
So...Why Aren't More Teams Doing This?
The pre-arbitration, long-term extension is a calculated risk that used to be primarily a "small-market team trying to stay competitive" practice.
The Tampa Bay Rays were the early kings of what has become a rapidly growing trend, even in larger markets.
Evan Longoria hadn't even been in the majors for a week before he signed a six-year, $17.5 million contract in April 2008. Matt Moore had pitched 9.1 innings in his MLB career when the Rays inked him to a five-year, $14 million deal in December 2011.
They gave Chris Archer a full season in the bigs before locking him up, but the six-year, $25.5 million deal that he signed in April 2014 still worked out quite well for Tampa Bay—they traded him to Pittsburgh for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz right when he started getting more expensive and less productive.
They also currently have Brandon Lowe on a six-year, $24 million deal. And though it was a much larger commitment than the others, the 11-year, $182 million contract that Wander Franco signed with Tampa Bay last November might end up being quite the bargain.
Those savvy moves have enabled the low-budget Rays to contend with the deep pockets of New York and Boston on a near-annual basis over the past 14 years.
It's not just the Rays, either.
Toronto has gotten solid value out of its seven-year, $22 million deal with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Milwaukee got Ryan Braun on an eight-year, $45 million deal after he won the 2007 NL ROY. (They also recently signed Aaron Ashby to a five-year, $20.5 million extension.)
Miami signed Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $49.6 million in March 2015 after his second season in the big leagues. And who can forget Kansas City getting Salvador Perez on a preposterous five-year, $7 million deal for 2012-16, during which time he was a four-time All-Star and Gold Glove Award winner with a 16.0 bWAR and a 2015 World Series MVP?
Oh, and the White Sox. Thanks to pre-arbitration extensions with Yoán Moncada (five years, $70 million), Luis Robert (six years, $50 million), Eloy Jiménez (six years, $43 million), Aaron Bummer (five years, $16 million) and especially Tim Anderson (six years, $25 million), Chicago was supposed to be one of the top teams in the American League this season and should enter next season as one of the biggest threats to reach the World Series once again.
There is, of course, some risk in making a long-term commitment to a player who has little to no MLB experience, as they haven't all been home runs.
Philadelphia's six-year, $24 million deal with Scott Kingery has been a colossal waste of money over the past three years, and they still owe him another $8 million in 2023, plus a buyout of the club options for 2024-26.
The Cubs gave David Bote a five-year, $15 million extension in early 2019, but he has provided absolutely no return on that investment.
Houston signed Jon Singleton to a five-year, $10 million deal before he ever played a game, and he finished his 114-game career with a negative-0.9 bWAR.
And that risk is rapidly increasing as the average salary on some of these pre-arbitration extensions has crept into the $20-$25 million range. At any rate, there sure are a lot of people these days wondering if San Diego's 14-year, $340 million deal with Fernando Tatis Jr. was a mistake.
For the most part, though, the risk has been well worth the reward, and Atlanta is clearly reaping the benefits of this long-term approach to roster development.
Despite letting Freddie Freeman and others walk after winning the 2021 World Series, the Braves currently have the fifth-best World Series odds per DraftKings (+1000) this October. And barring a rash of devastating injuries, they already feel like a lock to open each of the next five seasons as one of the top-five threats to win it all.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. All contract info courtesy of Spotrac.
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